This kind of play is one of the most difficult to master.
Generally, Rebluffing should be an important weapon against loose opponents that play many hands.
By playing many hands, a loose opponent must bluff more often than a tight player in order to make is style profitable.
Let’s see a recent example that will be a future classic.
Marcelo had the button and Dawn made a 3Bet of 10.000€ that was called. Durrrr made Cbet’s on the flop and turn. Tom had Marcello covered in chips.
Like Marcelo confessed, he had planned the play from the beginning, and I think the 8 on the river helped him on this.
Mathematically Marcello in the river is putting 145.000€ on a 223.000€ pot, solving the equation:
145x = 223y
x + y = 1 ↔ y=0.394 x=0.606
This play only has to work 40% of the times in order to show profit, 39,4% is the break-even point.
Using the terminology more common in poker, Marcello is giving himself 1,5 to 1 on his money.
Sunday, February 28, 2010
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