Sunday, February 28, 2010

Rebluff on the river – Such an exquisite play

This kind of play is one of the most difficult to master.

Generally, Rebluffing should be an important weapon against loose opponents that play many hands.

By playing many hands, a loose opponent must bluff more often than a tight player in order to make is style profitable.

Let’s see a recent example that will be a future classic.

Marcelo had the button and Dawn made a 3Bet of 10.000€ that was called. Durrrr made Cbet’s on the flop and turn. Tom had Marcello covered in chips.

Like Marcelo confessed, he had planned the play from the beginning, and I think the 8 on the river helped him on this.

Mathematically Marcello in the river is putting 145.000€ on a 223.000€ pot, solving the equation:

145x = 223y

x + y = 1 ↔ y=0.394 x=0.606

This play only has to work 40% of the times in order to show profit, 39,4% is the break-even point.

Using the terminology more common in poker, Marcello is giving himself 1,5 to 1 on his money.

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